NFL Season has arrived and with it our yearly NFL picks. In 2011 we amassed a sparkling 28-20-2 teaser record, winning at a 57% clip for the year. We were a whopping 78-22-2 overall.
How do we do it? Easy. There’s a right way to do teasers and a wrong way to do teasers. We don’t do teasers like losers do teasers. Here are the secrets:
1) Don’t bet every game. You can lose like Joe Pesci in Casino – “Two picks??” he shrieks at ace Rothstein. “Look at that card, there must be 100 games this weekend!” Ace’s reply? “I thought you wanted to win.”
Only bet the soft underbelly of the card. You get to move the line in your favor six points. Be judicious about how to apply that.
2) Take great teams, playing lousy oppoments. Last week the Ravens were 2.5 point underdogs to the Eagles. Move that line six points and you get a whopping 8.5! we covered. We also took the 49ers over the Lions. Our best friends last year were the Ravens (again) the Giants, Steelers, Panthers, 49ers, and Patriots. The Jets were a disappointment and, as always, avoid the NFC West teams, Buffalo, Minnesota, and Oakland as you never know what you’ll get week-to-week.
3) Take the 20+ points. Only once in the last two years have we played a 20+ point underdog and lost. In the NFL, that’s going to pay out long term. Teams are going to stay closer or score on the back end. Cash in on the trend.
4) Don’t forget the over/under! Sometimes the lines are so accurate, you can’t find those 4-8 games you want to parlay. But chek the over/under! Generally the Steelers, Ravens, and Jets are solid defensively and you can earn an over one you lower the line – sometimes as low as 29! Numbers in the low 30s are usually solid winners if you have at least oe solid defense (or inept offensive) team playing.
5. Wait until Week 5 or 6 to start betting. I know, I know, you get the urge…but you have to wait until teams identify themselves. Look at Buffalo last year. Also some temas are inconsistent early (the Giants). Don’t take needless chances.
