They were called “laughably uneven” the moment they were posted, and the critics are right. The 2014 FIFA World Cup groupings could not have been more unbalanced, severely handicapping Europe’s best squads while Argentina gets a red carpet trip straight to the semi-finals. And yes, most pundits think the United States’ best chance of getting deep into the tournament is to by a ticket to the final rounds.
Here are groupings, along with each country’s Soccer Power Index in parenthesis, (the “Nate Silver SPI” as it’s called, an independent ranking system as opposed to FIFA’s own in-house rankings).
Group A (avg. SPI 23.5, 7th hardest of 8 groups) – Brazil (1) Mexico (26) Croatia (31) Cameroon (38)
Group B (avg. SPI 17.5, 3rd hardest of 8) – Spain (3) Chile (5) Netherlands (9) Australia (53)
Group C (avg. SPI 19.75, 5th hardest of 8) – Columbia (6) Ivory Coast (18) Greece (23) Japan (32)
Group D (avg. SPI 14.0, hardest group) – Uruguay (8) England (10) Italy (13) Costa Rica (25)
Group E (avg. SPI 18.25, 4th hardest of 8) – France (7) Ecuador (11) Switzerland (22) Honduras (33)
Group F (avg. SPI 20.5, 6th hardest of 8) – Argentina (2) Bosnia-Herz. (14) Nigeria (28) Iran (38)
Group G (avg. SPI 15.25, 2nd hardest of 8) – Germany (4) Portugal (16) USA (17) Ghana (24)
Group H (avg. SPI 33.25, easiest group) – Belgium (12) Russia (13) S. Korea (37) Algeria (69)
All four teams in Groups D and G are ranked higher than the second best team in Brazil’s Group A. Meanwhile Columbia, Argentina, and Ecuador have nothing but doormats in their groups. (As usual, Argentina draws a ludicrous group…if Vanuatu, Antarctica, and Tibet ever make the World Cup, they’ll be in Argentina’s group.)
But most unfairly, the best European teams are all in groups with other elite European teams – Germany with Portugal, Spain with Netherlands (the defending champion with the runner-up!), Italy with England. Spain should howl especially loudly. They’re in with Holland and the strongest Chile side seen in at least a quarter-century. More than the USA, they can rightly claim being jobbed.
Everyone screams about how the USA got short-sheeted as well, but that may not be the case. It looks like a Group of Death to Americans because Germany is all but unbeatable, (except by Spain), Portugal has the best player in the world in Cristiano Ronaldo, and Ghana has knocked the Stars and Stripes out of the last two Cups. But both Portugal and Ghana are on a down cycle right now, age decimating Portugal and a lack of breakaway speed hurting the Black Stars. As long as we stay focused and get solid goalkeeping, we have as much of an opportunity to advance as either Portugal or Ghana.
But FIFA gets a good chance at what it desperately wants, a Brazil-Spain or Brazil-Argentina final. You know how FIFA thinks – after two consecutive all-Europe finals, it’s the rest of the World’s turn…that sort of egalitarian rubbish. That’s how the Middle Eats and Russia get to host World Cups in the future – America and Western Europe are so last century.
In order to fix these laughable, bush-league inequities, the rankings of the teams should be produced by an independent body, not FIFA. FIFA rankings fail to take into account goal differential or home field advantage, two statistics they could easily add, but choose not to for no apparent discernible reason. Moreover, drawing the teams out of pots based on geography rather than by strict seeding makes it even more haphazard.
Still, the U.S. should look at the bright side – they avoided both Spain and Brazil at the Group stage and for at least the first round of the knockout phase should they get that far, maybe more. And how marketable would a knockout phase matchup with Russia be? Cha-ching!
The U.S. plays better when it’s a massive underdog. When they are heralded, they aren’t humbled, and that’s when they get schooled. But when they are at their blue-collar, workman-like best, that’s when the magic happens.
Our preliminary picks: (projected group winner listed first)
Group A – Brazil, Croatia
Group B – Spain, Netherlands
Group C – Columbia, Greece
Group D – Uruguay, Italy
Group E – Ecuador, France
Group F – Argentina, Nigeria
Group G – Germany, USA
Group H – Russia, South Korea
Projected Winner: Brazil over Spain
