AHL PLAYOFF PUSH REDUX – WESTERN CONFERENCE
by Jay Flemma, Special to Facewash Magazine
It was the coldest winter in 157 years in the heart of the AHL, but that’s all behind them now. After setting two misery records – lowest average temperature in recorded history (7.2 degrees for the entire month of February), and most days in negative temps for the season, their love of hockey is keeping fans warm from Maine to Milwaukee and from San Antonio to Syracuse.
There are just three weeks left in the season, abut nine games left for each team, most being divisional showdowns. The trade deadline is a month behind us, and in some cases the new arrivals have made a world of difference on the scoreboard and in the standings. Teams are jockeying furiously, and with point totals being so close between the 4-6 seeds, a single win or loss can be the difference between a division title and a top 3 seed, (and home-ice advantage) or a distant seed and a deciding game 5 or 7 in the enemy rink. The AHL has a solid primer that’s updated daily (pronounced “PRIH-mmur” like “dimmer,” not “PRY-mur” like “slime-her”), but let’s read between the stats a bit and see who may be on the outside looking in in three weeks, as well as who could be hosting playoff match-ups for more than one round.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
WEST DIVISION
The San Antonio Rampage (42-20-6=90 pts.) top the entire Western Conference and lead the division by eight points over the sinking Oklahoma City Barons (37-23-8=82 pts., but they’ve dropped their last seven games, tallying just a dismal two points) and by 12 over the Texas Stars, (32-21-14=78 pts.). The Rampage have won nine straight, and with just eight games left have a magic number of three: any combination of three points in their favor or three points not earned by either the eight or nine seeds will send the Panthers affiliate to the playoffs, quite a turnaround from heir 14th place finish in the Conference last year.
Four of their next five games are eminently winnable as they face the hapless Adirondack Flames and an OKC team that looks lost as they march towards becoming the Bakersfield Barons next year. In between there is one showdown with the Grand Rapids Griffins. The Rampage close the season with three straight games against Texas.
FORECAST: Division title, top seed in West
Once a cold-stone lock, the Barons are fighting for their playoff lives. Oklahoma City got dismembered twice this weekend: first 4-2 in Utica, then 7-3 in Glens Falls against the ADK Flames.
It’s one thing to get smeared by the streaking Comets right now, but to give up a touchdown to Adirondack? There was no flow to the Barons’ attack, no chemistry along the lines, and goal-tending has been hit or miss. Their playoff magic number is 11, but they haven’t won in close to three weeks! You can’t back in THAT much to that playoffs…When teams break, they sometimes break hard and jagged, and OKC looks to be playing out the string, after leading the Division for almost the entire season. They may make the playoffs, but should exit early, especially if they face any of the division leaders.
FORECAST: 7 seed
The Texas Stars are a bit of an enigma: which team will show up? Seven of the final nine games are against likely playoff teams or solid contenders – Milwaukee, Hamilton twice and Chicago – before the big three game set against San Antonio that should ultimately decide their playoff fate. Presently the sixth seed, that may be an optimistic finish, but barring a poorly-timed late season slump they have a solid chance to secure at least the8th seed
FORECAST: Make the playoffs
NORTH DIVISION
Seven games ago the Utica Comets were treading water, playing .500 hockey and looking like they might enter the AHL playoff with a whimper instead of a bang. Now after winning seven straight – four on the road in tough places like Chicago and Syracuse – the Comets have streaked to second in the Conference and top their division by the largest margin of any division leader, 14 points over Hamilton, 17 over Adirondack, and over 18 Toronto, (who are 7th, 10th, and 11th in the Conference respectively). New additions Sven Baertschi, Adam Clendening, and Cory Conacher have provided significant depth and offensive spark. Instead of winning games 2-1 and 3-2, the Comets are putting trams away early and coasting to victory.
They have learned not just to win, but to dominate. Just like last year, they end the season as the team no one wants to play.
And while we’re at it, no enemy team looks forward to coming unto that madhouse the Utica Aud becomes when the Comets start firing on all cylinders.
The only drawback to the Comets forecast is that their last nine games are all against New York State rivals – teams that know them well and elevate their game accordingly. Syracuse, Hamilton, and Rochester all play well against Utica. Still with a playoff magic number of just three and a division title magic number five, there will be playoff hockey in Utica for the first time in over two decades, and the Comets will be a high seed, hosting a crucial Game 5 if necessary.
FORECAST: 3rd
Of the remaining three contenders in the North, only Hamilton (32-25-11=75 pts.) is a true playoff quality team. They are tied for 7th-8th in the conference with the Milwaukee Admirals and hold a two point lead over Chicago, currently on the outside looking in.
Hamilton is the deepest and toughest squad in the division excepting Utica, and their remaining schedule sets up well in terms of manageable opponents, but there is a five game road stretch of Utica, Texas twice, OKC and Lake Erie before the season ends at home against the Monsters. They haven’t exactly been taking advantage of their opportunities though, playing .500 hockey in the last 10 games, winning just four games.
Fortunately for them, Adirondack has gone 3-4-3 in their last 10. The Toronto Marlies are Joker in the deck for them moment as they have three games in hand on Hamilton and can pass them if they continue to surge as they have of late, winning six of their last ten. Three games with lowly Rochester are all but must wins, as is the Iowa game. Two match-ups against the Chicago could turn out to be elimination games for either team.
FORECAST: Toronto and Hamilton = still too early to tell, Adirondack eliminated.
MIDWEST DIVISION
It was all Rockford Icehogs until the Grand Rapids Griffins (40-19-8=88 pts.) went 19 games without a loss. Now the Red Wings affiliate leads the division by three points over Rockford (39-20-7=85 pts.) and 13 over Milwaukee (32-25-11). They are solid in all facets of the game, and play as well on the road as they do at home.
FORECAST: 2nd in the Conference
Rockford is still solid, especially with goaltender Michael Leighton notching his 41st career shutout in Adirondack on Friday. He can keep them in every game against any team.
FORECAST: 4 seed
Milwaukee and Chicago are mirror images of each other – speedy, tough, talented, and fierce, with excellent goaltending, particularly Magnus Hellberg, the Admirals’ all-star netminder. It would be a shame if either team missed the playoffs, but with four excellent teams in the Midwest, divisional showdowns may well be elimination games. The remaining eight games for the Admirals feature six division tilts, including two against the Wolves. In a toss-up between the Admirals’s goaltending and depth vs. the Wolves’ speed, passing skill, and aggression, I’d take the Admirals, there’s just one problem: the Wolves have three games in hand on both them and Hamilton. Moreover, the schedule sets up well, with two games against Iowa, and one each against Lake Erie and OKC, but no games against any division leader. I think their low position in the playoff race right now (9th) is more due to a tough division schedule than anything else.
FORECAST: Chicago: In the playoffs. They are the other team no one wants to face as they have speed, speed, speed. They’ve won four in a row and are peaking just in time. They will be more than just a tough out, they’ll be a dangerous opponent. Milwaukee should get in, but they have to break this five game winless streak they are mired in.
***UPDATE 3-39-15***
Chicago defeated Iowa 3-2 to jump all the way from 9th to 7th place in the West, (75 points). Toronto’s 4-3 win over Rochester moved the Marlies from 11th place into 9th. (73 points).
