Now that the Group Stage is over, and most of my picks – except Italy – are still standing, let’s breakdown the knockout stage. Like 2006, we’ll analyze the four individual brackets that will make up the final four, then explore the chances of the teams that should advance in their quest to ascend to Italy’s throne.
Bracket 1: Uruguay vs. South Korea, USA vs Ghana.
It’s not “One game changes everything”…it’s “One goal changes everything.” Now while most people are focusing on Landon Donovan’s miraculous injury time tally that turned the team from zeroes to heroes, remember also how important the bloop goal against England was…without that goal we are out. As it is, by winning the Group and flip-flopping expectedations with England, we also avoid the bracket with Germany, Argentina, and Mexico, a vastly stronger collection of teams.
Actually, America is in the easiest bracket – a penalty kick of a group, no European team and no team in the top 10 in the World rankings. We are stronger on paper than all three teams. While Uruguay beats South Korea, they will lose to either Ghana or the USA. So if the USA wins, it’s on to a likely date with Brazil.
As everyone knows, Ghana knocked us out in 2006 with a 2-1 Group stage stunner. Everyone underestimated Ghana then, but we won’t again. We know they have speed, great passing, and unselfish ball-handling, but we have a deeper, more talented team this time, and that intangible feeling of a team of destiny…between the fluke goal in our favor, making it out of the group despite horrific refereeing, and the late-minute heroics, Ghana will have their hands full with a hungry, focused, surging USA team.
So what if Ghana is the only African team left? Who cares if the rest of the world hates us and wants to see mighty America humbled? If the breaks and calls start to go our way, we advance to the final four. The USA defeats Ghana on penalty kicks, then dominates Uruguay 3-1.
One last note…if a U.S. game goes to penalty kicks and we win, everyone will celebrate it as an epic miracle. Can you see it now? “SAVE HOWARD!!! U.S. WINS!!!” If we lose on penalty kicks, everyone will hate soccer again because of its strange rules. We shouldn’t be deciding the World Championship of the World’s sport with a fairground sideshow penny toss. At its essence, penalty kicks simply determines either who has the better goalie, or who has the biggest chokers. Who wants to have a missed penalty kick in a World Cup final hanging over their head? Play futbol for the title.
The USA bracket winner will face the winner of…
Bracket 2: Netherlands vs. Slovakia, Brazil vs Chile
The return of Arjen Robben to join Van Persie will help the Dutch dominate Slovakia, but deeper, more experienced Brazil will win a goal-fest against Chile – it’s pronounced “Chi-LAY” like “Hooray!” not “Chili” like “silly” – who finished second to Brazil in South American qualifying, then defeat the Orange. While this Brazilian team is not as deep or dominating as years past, they have enough to keep the Dutch searching for answers as to how to finish tournaments. Brazil wins this bracket.
Now for the other side of the draw…
Bracket 3: England vs. Germany, Argentina vs. Mexico
Quick! What country has the most final four FIFA World Cup appearances?
***buzzer sounds!*** Wrong! It’s not Brazil! It’s Germany with 11 to Brazil’s 10. There’s your sure bar bet winner.
How is England favored? Germany is deeper, younger, more unified, and has less team drama. They also have a better goalie. Anyone who picks England is making the fatal mistake of forgetting that offense wins games – England has brighter stars – but defense wins championships, and Germany plays better D and plays better as a team. Moreover, England is prone to mistakes. That fluke goal against the Stars and Stripes will haunt them with an early exit. Germany 3-1.
Argentina will beat overmatched Mexico, but still has too little discipline to crack the Germans unified attack and suffocating defense. Germany exposes the Albicesteles and goes on to their record 12th final four. They will face the survivor of…
Bracket 4: Paraguay vs. Japan, Spain vs. Portugal
Spain is the class of this draw, despite playing below their talent level and expectations. Portugal is overrated and lacks the depth of 2006. Paraguay should handle Japan, but even if the Blue Samurai squeak by on penalty kicks, both teams are overmatched by Spain’s firepower. Spain advances.
FINAL FOUR
Brazil 3 USA 1. Can we beat Brazil? Sure, but not with a week for them to prepare. They are too deep, and our defense will finally cave. The clock strikes midnight for Cinderella.
Germany 2 Spain 1 or 1-1 on penalty kicks. No team that lost its first game at the group stage has ever gone on to win the World Cup, and Spain’s focus on offense finally hits the chamber with the bullet in it. The more disciplined, phlegmatic Germans eliminate the pre-tournament favorites.
…and in the final…surprise! Germany defeats Brazil to win their fourth World Cup, ending the eighty year-old happenstance that “No team but Brazil has won the Cup off their home continent.”
