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At a Major Championship, a Three shot Lead is the Worst Lead in Golf

KIAWAH ISLAND, SC – I’ve heard of sleeping on the lead but this is reedonkyoulous.

Rory McIlroy finished his rain-delayed third round of the 2012 PGA Championship at 10 a.m. this morning and before teeing off again at 1:46 p.m., took a power nap in the clubhouse. This has to be the among the most bizarre examples in of the golf history of sleeping on the lead, but hey, you know how they say a two goal lead is the worst lead in hockey? Well a three shot lead is the worst in golf. The complacency it can create in a golfer is just an invitation for the Golf Gods to send all their Furies riding down on his head on their Steeds of Vengeance.

“With a one or two shot lead, guys are concentrating and grinding, but wth a three shot lead or more, guys might relax and that’s when the axle breaks and the wheels fall off,” said quintessential Sports Illustrated golf columnist Gary Van Sickle, and he’s right. The final round is the underwater part of the iceberg, and three shots can vanish like a rabbit in a conjuring trick. One bad swing and one mental error and – Whoops! – that three shot lead is now a one shot deficit…and your Claret Jug, Green Jacket or Wanamaker just left town in someone else’s carry-on luggage.

Rory knows this better than many – he lost a four shot lead going into the final round of the Masters last year, only to give it all back on the tenth hole when he hit a flare right into a part of the property no one knew existed. And don’t even get me started on Greg Norman’s epic collapse at Augusta in 1996 when he blew a six shot lead and Sir Nick cruised to victory. He shot a brilliant 67 to Norman’s ghastly 78.

Norman’s actually made a habit of throwing up on his Foot-Joys. He also lost a three shot lead at the 1987 PGA Championship to Bob Tway, who still had to hole a bunker shot in a sudden death playoff to finally finish him off. But don’t jump, Greg! You have so much to live for: your G-5, your Maserati, your vineyards, your line of ugly golf shirts…

Plenty of other guys besides Greg have fumbled Wanamaker trophies away despite seemingly impregnable leads. It happened three times in a row from 1977 to 1979. Gene Littler had a four shot lead in 1977 at Pebble Beach and looked like a mortal lock to win.
A truly great champion, ultra-clutch putter who won at Oakland Hills with a 68-68 finish, he closed with a dismal 76 and lost in a playoff to Lanny Wadkins who came from six shots back.

The next year Tom Watson flushed a five shot lead with 18 to play at Oakmont and John Mahaffey won after firing a blistering 66 and then winning a playoff over Watson and Jerry Pate. Watson also lost a three shot lead with one round to go at the 1974 U.S. Open, the famous “Massacre at Winged Foot,” where Hale Irwin came from behind to win. Then in 1979 Rex Caldwell blew a five shot lead to David Graham at Oakland Hills.

There have been equally frightening collapses at recent PGA Championships as well. In 2010 Nick Watney had a three shot lead over Dustin Johnson. After Watney dazzled the golf world with rounds of 69-68-66 over what was supposedly the toughest course ever made by man, ghoul, or Pete Dye, his evil twin got loose form the trunk of the car and shot 81, leaving Martin Kaymer an accidental winner after Dustin Johnson suddenly forgot what a bunker looks like. It was the second time that year DJ blew a major in shocking fashion. He flushed a three shot lead with 18 holes to play at Pebble Beach that June after making it all but his home course at the AT&T during the two years prior.

Two more recent PGA Championship meltdowns stand out. Ernie Els, who survived the crucible pressure of a U.S. Open in 1994 at age 22, lost a three shot lead to Steve Elkington the following year at Riviera. Mike Reid had a three shot over Dave Rummels (who?) in 1989, but Payne Stewart came from six shots back to win.

Other majors have seen their share of final round meltdowns as well. After he built a three shot lead after 54 holes, everyone all but handed the 2005 U.S. Open at Pinehurst to Retief Goosen. He was the Iron Goose! He’s the Dockers wearing zombie who had all the nerves fried out of him by a lightning strike when he was a teen!

Suddenly there were Goose feathers all over the front nine and unheralded Michael Campbell, who has done nothing since, won the title, laughing all the way home to New Zealand. The rest of the golf world – a few dour Scots aside – found nothing remotely humorous about it. (Thank you Tom Meeks and your ludicrous course set-up.)

Then in 2007 Aaron Baddeley looked to break through and win his first major. Like Goosen, he soared to a score in the 80s and Angel Cabrera fired a final round 69 despite hitting only five of 14 fairways. That’s the stat of a man who shoots 79 at a U.S. Open, not 69. It shows you what a more intelligent and more fair set up can do for a tournament.

Three horrific British Open collapses come to mind as well. We all remember Jean Van de Velde – “Jean of Argh” as Dan Jenkins called him – who had a five shot lead going into the final round and a three shot lead with one hole to play before the carriage turned into a pumpkin, he triple bogeyed 18 and lost a playoff to Paul Lawrie, player so obscure even his native Scots couldn’t pick him out of a line-up of Stirling sheepherders.

Sergio also lost a three stroke lead with 18 to play at Carnoustie after opening with a sparkling 65. he lost a playoff to Padraig Harrington who went on to win three majors in six events, the last being the 2008 PGA Championship, also at Garcia’s expense.

And of course Adam Scott fell off the leaderboard like his parachute didn’t open just three weeks ago at Royal Lytham, leaving Ernie Els holding the Claret Jug.

It seems Rory faced his Gorgon and defeated it with his record setting march at the 2011 U.S. Open. His second round hiccup aside, he’s posted two scintillating 67s this week. He was anointed Europe’s Tiger and may live up to some of the hype. If he wins, his legend grows, but it’s a long 18 holes, and the road to the top is paved with the gravestones of talented golfers.