Are you ready or some football picks? We are. Jay’s Plays NFL Picks is back for it’s 11th season.
First we want to welcome back all our readers from Golf News Net. Glad to have you aboard again. Also welcome to all the listeners on the Jay’s Plays Radio Show.
We’ve been kicking ass and taking names for much of the last decade, batting a whopping 62.5%. We believe enough in our system to publish our picks to 1.5 million readers (more when syndicated) and almost half a million listeners on the radio. So thank you to all you listeners, readers, and fans.
Here is a primer on how this column works:
1. Ernesto the Prediction Iguana makes all the picks. If you have any complaints about his results, just leave a message with your phone number. Ernesto will personally return all calls between the hours of 2:00 and 6:00 a.m.
2. We do teasers here, using the lines we get from www.vegasinsider.com, so you get to move the line six points either way in your favor. You have to hit both picks to win, but you don’t lose the occasional tie. “But that’s harder,” you say…not if you play smart. Here’s how…
3. Take a really good team giving points to a particularly weak team and slide the six points to the favorite. Suddenly an eight point favorite only has to win by two. Better still, if they are only a four point favorite, suddenly you get two points for yourself. BONUS!
4. We don’t bet every game. Remember Ace Rothstein from Casino? He didn’t bet all 100 games on the card – he’d bet the two that were winners. So Rule 1 is play SMART. Losers chase action. Winners stay cool and win one game at a time. We pick three games each week usually – sometimes two sometimes four – but normally, it’s Green Light, Amber Alert, Red Zone.
5. Stay away from most inter-divisional match-ups! You never know what you’re going to get week-to-week, and teams tend to know each other too well. The chaos of the NFC East, for example, is difficult to get a pulse on consistently. Of course, when you do find a mis-match, exploit it ruthlessly, which leads us to…
6. Be the playground bully. Bet against crappy teams even more than you bet on good teams. Example – Cleveland! For years, they’ve been an ATM machine for you!
7. Don’t forget the Over/Under! It’s your friend in a week where the lines are too close for comfort.
8. If you’re not 100% confident, DON’T BET THE GAME! That’s how you lose: chasing action.
9. Bet ultra-conservatively the first five weeks, if you must bet. We choose not to start the betting season until Week 5. The first five weeks are your litmus test. That’s when teams start to identify themselves.
10. Stay away from 7.5 and 3.5 lines…As Mike Mosely once said, “Danger Will Robinson!”
So that’s the system. Here it is in action with our Week 5 picks:
GREEN LIGHT
patriots -1.5 at BROWNS
eagles +8.5 at LIONS
The Patriots get Tom Brady back and are coming off a loss. The Browns have one thing: a running game, if they can stop fumbling. New England tends to have trouble with Cleveland, but with Coach Grumpyface getting his deflator-in-chief back, look for a track meet.
The Eagles destroyed mighty Pittsburgh last week and are getting points from the lowly Lions? And you get to slide the line to a bloated 8.5? Take that all day long.
AMBER ALERT
bengals +5 at COWBOYS
RAVENS-redskins OVER 41
The Bengals get Vontaze Burfect back from suspension this week, so their pass defense shores up significantly. The Cowboys have QB issues, so look for the pick-happy Cinci defense to possibly run one back for a TD.
The Ravens are a soft 3-1, losing late last week to a resurgent Oakland Raiders team. Flacco is an elite QB and will toss for a pair of scores. They’ll rebound at home against a mediocre Redskins team that should help put up enough points to cover a low over total.
RED ROVER
STEELERS EVEN vs. jets
RAVENS +2 vs. redskins
What a price to get for the Steelers at home against a team that struggles against them. Jets QB Matt Fitzpatrick has thrown nine picks the last two weeks. So long as Big Ben doesn’t try to force too much and gve the game away with turnovers, the Steelers should cruise.
The Ravens get points at home against a team that struggling to find some sort of identity.
