Jay’s Plays NFL Picks – Week 10 Predictions and Bettor’s Guide

http://jayflemma.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/iguanacool-3.jpgJay’s Plays NFL Picks – Week 10 Predictions and Bettor’s Guide

DON’T BE BLUE OVER A 3-3 WEEK, 1-2 IN TEASERS. ERNESTO IS 24-8 ON THE SEASON, 11-5 IN TEASERS

It was “the most interesting week in the NFL in years,” according to Vegas Insiders.

That means they took a bath!

“So many parlays were still alive by the time to 4:00 games started, we were going to lose and lose big no matter what,” said one casino book manager in a radio interview. Here at AWITP and GNN, Ernesto the Prediction Iguana broke even: 3-3 for the week, 1-2 in teasers, which makes the season totals a solid 24-8 overall, 11-5 in teasers. We won with the Patriots (5-0 for us this season), the Chiefs (3-0 for us) and the Panthers (2-0). We also won, yet again, betting against the Browns, (4-0 this season doing that!) We lost with the Seahawks and Redskins (we’re 1-1 with those teams this year.)

We also learned an important lesson: the Pittsburgh Steelers defense is six points better without Artie Burns playing as a defensive back. With Burns playing on defense the Steelers gave up 21, 42, 27, 26, 17, and 21. Without Burns – he’s been benched on D – they surrendered just 16 and 16 in the last two games. You do the math.

Here’s this week’s winners before they happen. As always, we do 2-team teasers here, so we can move the line six points either way. We use the lines from www.vegasinsider.com, HOME TEAM IN CAPS.

IT AIN’T BROKE, SO DON’T FIX IT

patriots -1/2 at TITANS
falcons +2 at BROWNS

We’re going to ride this combo until there is a reason not to: we’re 5-0 with the Pats and 4-0 betting whoever plays Cleveland. Why stop now?

NFC OVER AFC?!

saints +1.5 at BENGALS
PACKERS -3 vs. dolphins

New Orleans just knocked the mighty Rams from the ranks of the unbeaten and have enough firepower to outrun the Bengals, even in Cincinnati. Wisconsin Ninja will steal this game late from a Dolphins team that just can’t close against good teams. The Packers aren’t quite top echelon on D, but have enough to top the inconsistent Dolphins at Lambeau.

DA BEARS!

BEARS -1/2 vs. lions
CHIEFS-cardinals OVER 44

FOR GAMBLING DEGENERATES ONLY – SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR

cardinals +22.5 at CHIEFS
BEARS-lions OVER 39.5

We’ve noticed something interesting over the 13 years of this column: only once has a teal getting more than 20 points lost, even if that team were playing the Patriots. The Cardinals are terrible this year, and the Chiefs are a powerhouse, but 22.5 is a lot of points. The only thing giving Ernesto pause was that this game is at Arrowhead. Still, you might even be better off taking the Chiefs and giving 10.5 instead. (Heck, you could hit BOTH sides of this one.) This is an interesting litmus test for the long-term trend we’ve been following.

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Jay Flemma